The King of Clay is back!

Who can possibly beat Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros? This question was already on everyone’s lips 12 months ago, and little did we know that we were going to get an emphatic answer. This year however, the Majorcan has managed to become an even hotter favourite than in 2009…

For the first time since he made his debut in 2005, Rafael Nadal will not be going to the French Open as defending champion. This year, that particular honour goes to the Spaniard’s chief rival, Roger Federer. Does the Swiss maestro finally winning his first major on clay in 2009 represent the end of an era, or was it merely a parenthesis?

Despite his defeat to Robin Soderling in the round of 16 last year which was perhaps the perfect illustration of how nothing can ever be taken for granted in the world of sport, Rafa will again be the red-hot favourite at the 2010 French Open. But why is it that the four-time champion looks more of a shoe-in than ever, despite his long unbeaten streak on the Paris clay having come to an end?

No road to Paris via Barcelona

Firstly, Nadal chose to not to play in Barcelona this year – a tough decision for the 23-year-old. To the casual observer, it is a relatively insignificant tournament, but Rafa had won it on no fewer than five occasions in the past and it of course represented another chance for glory in front of his home crowd. It was a real sacrifice, and one made very much with Roland Garros in mind.

While we will never know how much his defeat to Soderling was due to his knee injury, Rafa has certainly learnt the lessons of 2009 and there is no way that he will arrive in Paris in anything less than top form physically. Last year’s marathon semi-final win over Novak Djokovic at the Madrid masters was the straw which broke the camel’s back towards the end of an exhausting season on the European red brick, and so the king of clay simply decided to cross a tournament off his busy 2010 schedule. When he arrives in Madrid this time around, he will be fresher than in previous years, particularly since he only dropped 14 games in winning his sixth title in Monte Carlo, although his fifth Rome crown did take a little more out of him.

Secondly, Rafa will be out for revenge. His defeat to Soderling, with the Swede being buoyed by a crowd which very much decided to cheer for the underdog on that fateful Sunday, was a real body-blow to Nadal, and he will not let it happen again in a hurry. He then went without a title in a barren spell which lasted 11 months, which seemed to spur him on even further in Monte Carlo and Rome this year, the first of which he won with style, the second with substance.
"The important thing is to have enough motivation to want to improve all the time," he said after his win over David Ferrer as dusk fell on the brand new centre court at the Foro Italico in the Italian capital. "I am probably more happy winning without playing my best," he added, referring to the struggle he had in his semi-final against Latvian surprise package Ernest Gulbis.
Barring injuries, Nadal will therefore arrive at the French in peak physical form, highly motivated and brimming with confidence. His opponents be warned – it will take something special to pull off a “Robin Soderling” act on Rafa in 2010…

Federer Making His Final Stand at the U.S. Open

I remember watching Roger Federer “battle” Pete Sampras in an exhibition match in March. It was something to see: two of the greatest tennis players of all time (and the best of the past two generations) facing off in the world’s most famous arena.

It was also a farce. Federer, killing time and cashing a check, played along gamely, losing points on purpose to keep the match close before the ultimate swatting-away of Sampras in the final set. Sampras worked hard enough, but his best years were a decade ago; at one point, Sampras swung and whiffed on an easy volley. The crowd groaned, Sampras scowled, and Federer, to his credit, resisted a giggle. The display did no favors to either’s legacy. But that wasn’t the point, at least not for Federer; it was a payday, yes, but it was also a way to turn himself from robotic tennis machine into a global superstar. The process was well in motion; he was setting up endorsement deals in Dubai, making Time’s list of the 100 most influential people, and getting photographed by Annie Leibovitz. But New York was the real prize. Making a major splash here could turn him from a notoriously bland Sampras-type into something closer to the marketing behemoth that is his friend Tiger. But you couldn’t help but wonder: For all the tangential benefits of goofing around with Anna Wintour and Pete Sampras, didn’t this guy have an actual tennis career to be working on? He was two major titles behind Sampras’s record of fourteen; this couldn’t be the right way to go about breaking that, could it?

And here we are, five months later, and it has all backfired. While Federer was playing in exhibitions, noted rival Rafael Nadal was planning his ambush, one that culminated in the epic Wimbledon final last month. Since that night at MSG, Nadal has usurped Federer in every possible fashion. He beat Federer in the French Open for the third straight year, won that Wimbledon, took over his No. 1 world ranking, and, for good measure, won a gold medal in Beijing. Meanwhile, Federer was looking more mortal than ever. Not only was Nadal beating him on a non-clay court (finally): Federer lost to James-freaking-Blake in the Olympics.

Theoretically speaking, if there were ever a time to remind the world that he’s Roger Federer, dammit, this would be it; Wimbledon has the tradition, but the U.S. Open is where stars are made. But, in the strange world of professional athletics, Federer might be too old to recover. He turned 27 last week, which seems young until you realize that Nadal, who finally vanquished his perpetual conqueror, is five years younger and clearly hungrier. And age certainly matters in tennis. Bjorn Borg won his last Grand Slam at 24 (and made an ill-advised comeback thirteen years later); John McEnroe’s came at 25. Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras are the exceptions, and they had styles more based in guile and volleys than Federer’s power; in baseball, they would say that Federer has “old player skills.” (Think Ryan Howard; when they reach a certain age, they tend to decline rapidly.) Federer has never been challenged like this in his career, and it’s an open question as to whether he has the desire, or moxie, to rebound in time.

Federer thought he would come into next week’s U.S. Open as the conquering hero, the superstar with all the glamour he supposedly lacked. That was the point of the Sampras exhibition and Anna Wintour friendship. Now? He has lost his top ranking, his theoretical “best player of all time” title, and, if you haven’t noticed, it’s not him who’s on the cover of the fashion magazines (and this one): It’s Nadal.

The Federer era - a tribute

It’s official now: Rafael Nadal will supplant Roger Federer as the #1 men’s tennis player in the world. In two week, the rankings will show Nadal in the #1 position, thanks to Federer’s recent failures to match last season’s performances. Nadal certainly deserves it - now we wait to see how long he can hold on.

Federer’s reign as #1 may be over for now, but his period of dominance will not be forgotten. First off, he spent 235 consecutive weeks at #1. Before that, the record was 160 by Jimmy Connors; Federer surpassed that by almost a year and a half. The great Pete Sampras’s longest reign was 102 weeks. Here’s something even more incredible: Nadal has been #2 for 158 weeks, almost as long as anyone other than Federer was #1!. That means that for three years Nadal has been there, but he couldn’t get past Federer. Translation: Federer was consistently better than Nadal over that time.

Next, let’s compare Federer’s period of dominance with Sampras’s most impressive span of dominance. I’ve looked at the best five year performances for them. I’m including 2003 for Federer rather than 2008, since his winning percentage was better that year. For Sampras, I’m looking at ten years before Federer: 1993-1997. I’m going to look at their performances each year, then the cumulative totals. Specific title wins will be listed for Grand Slams, Masters series events, and the Tennis Masters Cup.

2003 Federer: 78-17 record, 23 tournaments, 9 finals, 7 titles. Won Wimbledon and Masters Cup.

1993 Sampras: 85-16 record, 24 tournaments, 9 finals, 8 titles. Won Wimbledon, U.S. Open, and Miami Masters.

2004 Federer: 74-6 record, 17 tournaments, 11 finals, 11 titles. Won Australian Open, Wimbledon, U.S. Open, Masters Cup, Indian Wells Masters, Hamburg Masters, and Canada Masters.

1994 Sampras: 77-12 record, 22 tournaments, 12 finals, 10 titles. Won Australian Open, Wimbledon, Masters Cup, Indian Wells Masters, Miami Masters, and Rome Masters.

2005 Federer: 81-4 record, 15 tournaments, 12 finals, 11 titles. Won Wimbledon, U.S. Open, Indian Wells Masters, Miami Masters, Hamburg Masters, and Cincinnati Masters.

1995 Sampras: 72-16 record, 21 tournaments, 9 finals, 5 titles. Won Wimbledon, U.S. Open, Indian Wells Masters, and Paris Masters.

2006 Federer: 92-5 record, 17 tournaments, 16 finals, 12 titles. Won Australian Open, Wimbledon, U.S. Open, Masters Cup, Indian Wells Masters, Miami Masters, Canada Masters, and Madrid Masters.

1996 Sampras: 65-11 record, 19 tournaments, 9 finals, 8 titles. Won U.S. Open and Masters Cup.

2007 Federer: 68-9 record, 16 tournaments, 12 finals, 8 titles. Won Australian Open, Wimbledon, U.S. Open, Masters Cup, Hamburg Masters, and Cincinnati Masters.

1997 Sampras: 55-12 record, 20 tournaments, 8 finals, 8 titles. Won Australian Open, Wimbledon, Masters Cup, Cincinnati Masters, and Paris Masters.

All right, let’s tally up the totals for those five-year spans:

Sampras: 354-67 record, 106 tournaments*, 47 finals, 39 titles. Won 9 Grand Slams, 3 Masters Cups, and 8 Masters Series events. (*- I’m not entirely sure about the total tournaments played since Wikipedia doesn’t say for him. I added his titles to his losses to come up with this number, but that’s assuming he went 3-0 in round robin play at the Masters Cup. Sampras very well may have lost one match in round robin play in some years. This total, though, is no more than five off.)

Federer: 393-41 record, 88 tournaments, 60 finals, 49 titles. Won 12 Grand Slams, 4 Masters Cups, and 13 Masters Series events.

That is flat out stunning: Federer rules every category of that comparison. He won more Grand Slams, Masters Series events, Masters Cups, and overall titles than Sampras. (In case you were wondering, the five year span I selected for Sampras was his career best by far. He won 39 tournaments in that period and only 25 for the entire rest of his career.) Federer’s overall record was tremendously more dominant than Sampras’s. Consider just these two facts:

1. In his entire career, Sampras won 10 tournaments in a season only once (1994). Federer did it in three consecutive seasons (2004-2006).
2. In a full season (at least 15 tournaments played), Sampras never had fewer than 10 losses in a season. Federer accomplished that four seasons in a row (2004-2007).

Here are a few more of Federer’s amazing records:

• Grass court winning streak: 65 matches from 2003 to 2008. Second best: Bjorn Borg 41.
• Hardcourt winning streak: 56 matches from 2005 to 2006.
• Consecutive finals won: 24 from 2003 to 2005. Second best: John McEnroe and Bjorn Borg 12.
• He is the only player to win at least three times in three separate Grand Slam tournaments (3 Australian Open, 5 Wimbledon, 4 U.S. Open).
• He is the only player to win three Grand Slam tournaments in a single season three times in his career (Australian Open, Wimbledon, U.S. Open in 2004, 2006, 2007).
• He has the record for consecutive Grand Slam finals reached: 10, from the 2005 Wimbledon to the 2007 U.S. Open.
• He has a current streak of 17 consecutive semifinals reached in Grand Slam tournaments. Second best: Ivan Lendl 8. (By comparison, Rafael Nadal’s best streak, albeit current, is 3.)
• Highest rankings point total ever: 8370 at the end of the 2006 season.
• From October 2003 to January 2005, Federer won a record 26 consecutive matches against top 10 opponents.

I think this final stat tells Federer’s dominance story the best. In Borg’s streak of five straight Wimbledon titles, he lost a total of 19 sets. In Sampras’s streak of four straight, he lost 14 sets. In Federer’s five-year streak, he lost only 8!

Nadal may be #1, but he has a long way to go to ever be considered along with Federer as the greatest of all time.

RAFA ROLLS INTO FIRST PLACE

Although i am still a federer fan - i guess this post on RAFA was much needed!!!!!

The tennis gods have opened their big, beautiful, tan, muscular arms and ushered our edible little tapa into the world’s number one spot, unofficially, but I’m still gonna declare August 1 a holiday. Rafa Day…Our baby ripped it like a Spanish warrior from the hands of a more than one opponent to climb over a Swiss Ego and land on both feet with class and humility, no?

Granted, Rafael Nadal’s official-official number one ranking wont be ‘acknowledged’ until he wins the tournament, Sunday, but even if he doesn’t, he has enough points in Cincinnati to overtake Roger Federer when the rankings are released on Aug. 18. “Yeah, very tough match” he panted after downing Nicolas Lapentti 7-6, 6-1 on Friday, “I was little bit tired…the weather here is very hot…important for me into semifinals, very, very happy…happy because I fight it a lot the last three years to be number one, but for sure be number one is always a goal, no?”

We have a new worlds number one, Rafael Nadal. Rafa said he would wait until “after Davis Cup for party.” However, after sitting in second place for 158 straight weeks on the ATP World rankings, I hope he’s chugging down a few glasses of wine his lady…after all, its not everyday you dethrone a man who was on a 235 week run. I will refrain from sending condolences to Roger Federer or making any kind of comments like Rafa deserves it because he trained harder, remained focused, and wasn’t busy texting his celeb-pals between sets in order to make sure they were watching him play. But I do hear Roger Federer will be carrying the Swiss flag at next Friday’s Olympic Games opening ceremony in Beijing-so that’s good, right? And it coincides with his 27th birthday, so I’m sure he’ll be just fine…

Congratulations Rafa for becoming the 24th player in the history of the ATP Rankings to hold the number one position and the third Spaniard to accomplish the feat, joining Carlos Moya (1999) and Juan Carlos Ferrero (2003).