The King of Clay is back!

Who can possibly beat Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros? This question was already on everyone’s lips 12 months ago, and little did we know that we were going to get an emphatic answer. This year however, the Majorcan has managed to become an even hotter favourite than in 2009…

For the first time since he made his debut in 2005, Rafael Nadal will not be going to the French Open as defending champion. This year, that particular honour goes to the Spaniard’s chief rival, Roger Federer. Does the Swiss maestro finally winning his first major on clay in 2009 represent the end of an era, or was it merely a parenthesis?

Despite his defeat to Robin Soderling in the round of 16 last year which was perhaps the perfect illustration of how nothing can ever be taken for granted in the world of sport, Rafa will again be the red-hot favourite at the 2010 French Open. But why is it that the four-time champion looks more of a shoe-in than ever, despite his long unbeaten streak on the Paris clay having come to an end?

No road to Paris via Barcelona

Firstly, Nadal chose to not to play in Barcelona this year – a tough decision for the 23-year-old. To the casual observer, it is a relatively insignificant tournament, but Rafa had won it on no fewer than five occasions in the past and it of course represented another chance for glory in front of his home crowd. It was a real sacrifice, and one made very much with Roland Garros in mind.

While we will never know how much his defeat to Soderling was due to his knee injury, Rafa has certainly learnt the lessons of 2009 and there is no way that he will arrive in Paris in anything less than top form physically. Last year’s marathon semi-final win over Novak Djokovic at the Madrid masters was the straw which broke the camel’s back towards the end of an exhausting season on the European red brick, and so the king of clay simply decided to cross a tournament off his busy 2010 schedule. When he arrives in Madrid this time around, he will be fresher than in previous years, particularly since he only dropped 14 games in winning his sixth title in Monte Carlo, although his fifth Rome crown did take a little more out of him.

Secondly, Rafa will be out for revenge. His defeat to Soderling, with the Swede being buoyed by a crowd which very much decided to cheer for the underdog on that fateful Sunday, was a real body-blow to Nadal, and he will not let it happen again in a hurry. He then went without a title in a barren spell which lasted 11 months, which seemed to spur him on even further in Monte Carlo and Rome this year, the first of which he won with style, the second with substance.
"The important thing is to have enough motivation to want to improve all the time," he said after his win over David Ferrer as dusk fell on the brand new centre court at the Foro Italico in the Italian capital. "I am probably more happy winning without playing my best," he added, referring to the struggle he had in his semi-final against Latvian surprise package Ernest Gulbis.
Barring injuries, Nadal will therefore arrive at the French in peak physical form, highly motivated and brimming with confidence. His opponents be warned – it will take something special to pull off a “Robin Soderling” act on Rafa in 2010…